Shelter from the Storm

Aoifinn Devitt | Chief Investment Officer
Chris Kamykowski CFA®, CFP® | Head of Investment Strategy & Research

As Hurricane Ian prepared to batter the Western Coast of Florida earlier this week, there was dramatic footage of the tide receding in certain areas as the hurricane “scooped” up the water, only for it to surge later. It was eerily reminiscent of the scenes from the 2004 Asian Tsunami – nature at work, detected intuitively by certain birds and other wildlife, but not some humans, who rushed into to the drained beaches unaware of the perils that loomed.

The markets in recent months have had a somewhat similar feel. We can think of the prevailing macro-crises – high inflation, rising rates, a wobbling economy and geo-political uncertainty – as that perilous tidal swell. After a stormy and tumultuous first half of the year, the beginning of the third quarter was eerily quiet. The worries seemed to recede, the markets rallied (market performance in July for the S&P 500 was over 9%, marking the best month since November 2020), and investors strained to see signs of inflation rolling over and an easing of some of the US Fed’s tightening. And as the tide went out, investors rushed in.

Now, in retrospect, it is clear this market strength in July had all the hallmarks of a bear market rally, albeit one that was slightly more sustained and broader than usual. It proved to be dangerously short and maybe a distraction from the storm surge on the horizon.

The August/September Storm Surge

The markets have since retraced all their gains from mid-year. As we write, the macro-worries have swollen like a storm surge. Mortgage rates currently sit close to 7%, their highest level since 2007. Treasury yields were on the march upwards as investors sold bonds in expectation of further rate rises by the Fed. In September, the Fed went for a hat trick by implementing its third 75 bps rate hike. It is now signaling a target of over 4%, indicating further rate increases are likely to come before the year ends.

These movements in yields have taken their toll on bond values, but do, conversely, present interesting entry points today – for example, investors investing in laddered bond portfolios will be seeing some bonds roll off and others purchased at the current levels. Other parts of the fixed income universe, such as investment grade corporate bonds and high yield bonds, are trading at attractive yields relative to their history, too.

The rise in mortgage rates is likely to slow momentum in the housing market and is also likely to slow investment in DIY projects and other home improvement sectors, as consumers will be slow to refinance or move homes at current rates.

The slump in equity markets year to date is evident from the chart below, and as can be seen from the two orange lines – representing developed market and emerging market equity indices (in local currency) – weakness has been global. The drag of non-US markets has been exacerbated by a US Dollar that is lingering at close to 20-year highs, as the US currency remains a safe-haven currency, while other regions seem to have an even poorer outlook than that on the ground here.

How not to drive

As we look around the world and speak with our non-US managers, we are hearing of an energy-price-led recession in Europe and a man-made double-dip recession in China stemming from its zero-Covid policy. This stringent policy is effectively acting as a brake on the economy, while the government is at the same time attempting to stimulate the economy through infrastructure investment.

The style of driving – akin to driving with one foot on the brake and one on the gas – is gaining popularity and markets are reacting with revulsion. In the past few weeks, the bond and currency markets were thrown into disarray in the UK as a mini budget there purported to stimulate the economy with tax cuts, while the Bank of England was seeking to cool it via interest rate hikes. This clash between monetary and fiscal policy proved to be unpalatable for markets and served as a cautionary tale for other countries about the perils of taming inflation while seeking to avoid an economic slowdown. In recent weeks, the realization is setting in – globally – that this might not be possible.

Where can I shelter from the storm?

This realization is leading the conversation to shift from whether the Fed will achieve a “soft landing” in the US to a discussion of how hard the “landing” and ensuing recession will be. For now, the labor market remains tight (with unemployment at close to record lows in the US), a low labor force participation rate, and an excess of job vacancies relative to persons seeking employment. With persistent inflation and more rate rises likely, where can investors take shelter from this storm?

For years, while bond yields were at record lows, it seemed that equities presented the best investment alternative. Now, however, with real yields rising, bonds are again starting to look relatively attractive. Both equities and bonds can be expected to struggle in an environment of rising rates, but as the chart below shows, equity markets tend to be a leading indicator of a recession and to fall in advance of a recession.

Once the recession arrives, however, markets tend to level out and rise. If this pattern holds, equity markets may lead bond markets out of the recession as bond markets will continue to weaken as rates rise. The scope of the further downside to bonds may be limited, however, given that much of the rate rises have already occurred in quick succession. They will also, in the interim, continue to deliver yields that are attractive relative to their recent history.

Source: Morningstar Global Recession Data Source: Worldbank; Kose, M. Ayhan; Sugawara, Naotaka; Terrones, Marco E.. 2020. Global Recessions. Policy Research Working Paper;No. 9172. World Bank, Washington, DC. © World Bank. https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/33415 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO

Putting this all together, our view remains that it is key to remain invested in both equities and bonds at this juncture, ensuring that both are sufficiently diversified. For equity markets, this means diversified by style – by growth and value stocks. While growth stocks have borne the brunt of the selloff year to date (the Nasdaq is down 31.4% year to date as of September 29, while the S&P is down 23.6% as of the same date), value stocks have been somewhat more robust – as this chart showing sector dispersion shows:

As to the question of geographic diversification within equities, again, a look at the first chart in this paper shows that in local terms, non-US equity markets have outperformed US markets. Some, such as the FTSE in the UK, are heavily dependent on exports and tend to rise when their currency weakens. Others, such as some Asian markets, had considerable weakness in previous years as they lagged the US market, so they experienced more resilience to the current global volatility.

The key driving factor of weakness there is the US Dollar strength, which has compounded losses in these markets as noted before. At a 20-year high and still a safe haven currency, there are no immediate indications that the USD will reverse this trend, and it is likely that the strength will continue until the US Fed ceases raising rates. However, the incremental gains from the dollar strengthening further may be more muted now, and we still believe that there are benefits to diversification by currency and global stocks due to the differing return drivers in each region.

Within fixed income, we are positive on maintaining an allocation both as a potential source of income and diversification. Where possible, we see potential to add exposure to instruments that are less exposed to interest rate hikes – such as floating rate debt, bank loans, and private credit.

For some time, we have guided clients towards building inflation resilience into portfolios – and while equity exposure will generally provide some of this, real estate and real assets are key to providing more inflation-linked exposure. Of course, as noted above in our discussion of house prices, all real estate is exposed to interest rates, and potential demand weakness that might accompany rising rates; but interesting opportunities remain. Real assets, such as infrastructure, will get a boost from the ongoing focus on energy security and recent legislation, such as the Inflation Reduction Act that earmarks spending on renewable energy and other infrastructure initiatives.

Finally, alternative assets such as private equity have different holding periods to public equities and bonds, and as such, can provide ballast to a portfolio when other areas are seeing mark-to-market losses. While this does not mean that private assets are immune to market weakness (they are not, as their own valuations are driven by public market valuations) they are not as prone to volatility; including them in a portfolio can smoothen a return pattern.

So, our advice for how to shelter from the current storm is to hunker down – close to base – close to your original asset allocation. This “base” should be maintained through rebalancing when the opportunity arises. If there is “dry powder” to allocate through liquidation events, maybe the “base” can be fortified through ensuring that all the components of a strong house are in place.

Sources: 

The S&P 500 Index is a free-float capitalization-weighted index of the prices of 500 large-cap common stocks actively traded in the United States.

The Russell 1000® Index is an index of 1000 issues representative of the U.S. large capitalization securities market.

The Russell 2000® Index is an index of 2000 issues representative of the U.S. small capitalization securities market.

The MSCI EAFE Index is a free float-adjusted market capitalization index designed to measure the equity market performance of developed markets, excluding the U.S. and Canada.

The MSCI Emerging Markets Index is a float-adjusted market capitalization index that consists of indices in 21 emerging economies.

© 2022 Moneta Group Investment Advisors, LLC is an SEC registered investment advisor and wholly owned subsidiary of Moneta Group, LLC. Registration as an investment advisor does not imply a certain level of skill or training. The information contained herein is for informational purposes only, is not intended to be comprehensive or exclusive, and is based on materials deemed reliable, but the accuracy of which has not been verified. Examples contained herein are for illustrative purposes only based on generic assumptions. Given the dynamic nature of the subject matter and the environment in which this communication was written, the information contained herein is subject to change. This is not an offer to sell or buy securities, nor does it represent any specific recommendation. You should consult with an appropriately credentialed professional before making any financial, investment, tax, or legal decision. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. You cannot invest directly in an index. All investments are subject to a risk of loss. Diversification and strategic asset allocation do not assure profit or protect against loss in declining markets. These materials do not take into consideration your personal circumstances, financial or otherwise.

 

The post Shelter from the Storm appeared first on Moneta Group.

source https://monetagroup.com/blog/shelter-from-the-storm/

RACEN Wealth Management Merges Into $32.8B RIA Moneta

Peter Racen moves practice from Northwestern Mutual to join Moneta as a Partner on the Gast Freeman Troyer Team

ST. LOUIS — September 22, 2022 — Attracted by the firm’s national reputation, fee-only structure, and multi-generational approach, Peter Racen merged RACEN Wealth Management into Moneta and joined the independent RIA as a Partner on the Gast Freeman Troyer Team.

Racen’s 5-person team comes to Moneta from Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management Company. Merged with the GFT Team at Moneta, their combined strength features four Partners among six total CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNERS^TM (CFP®) and two Certified Public Accountants (CPA). The team’s growing national footprint includes personnel in St. Louis, Chicago, and the Washington D.C. area, and clients located across the country and internationally, too. Their partnership strategically spans multiple generations for the sake of preserving continuity of service across multiple generations of their client relationships.

“I could do financial planning at any firm or pick up scale by adding anyone with a book of business; I chose Moneta because they offer so much more than that,” said Racen, a 23-year industry veteran. “One big driver for us was Moneta being a fee-only RIA, where we could provide true fiduciary services. That combined with the firm’s impressive history, national reputation, and structure – with an enterprise service team of 100+ specialized experts supporting our team’s strategy and practical execution – was quite compelling. We also wanted to ensure our practice thrives well beyond my involvement so our clients can be assured that their families will be taken care of for generations to come.”

Moneta Partner Peter Racen

As a business owner, entrepreneur, and Family CFO, Racen values sharing his expertise to create a comprehensive wealth management plan for his clients. Having been on the other side of the table, Racen understands first-hand the perspective of business owners and brings specific expertise in complex business planning and estate planning that will enhance the GFT Team’s already strong focus on serving business executives.

“This continues Moneta’s legacy as an industry leader in succession planning, as several years ago the Partners at our firm made a shared commitment to strategically build our teams to include next-gen advisors,” Moneta Partner Gus Gast said. “This not only benefits our clients across multiple generations, but also attracts new Partners, like Peter, who seek a sustainable business model for both their practice and their clients.”

 

ABOUT MONETA

Moneta Group Investment Advisors, LLC is a registered investment advisor (RIA) with approximately $32.8 billion in assets under management as of Dec. 31, 2021, headquartered in the Midwest. InvestmentNews ranked Moneta among the nation’s Top 10 largest fee-only RIAs for the fifth-straight year in 2022. Barron’s ranked Moneta among the nation’s Top 10 Independent RIAs in 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020 and 2021 for its combination of quality and scale.

The firm consistently earns praise for the way it invests in and takes care of employees. In 2021, InvestmentNews ranked Moneta among the nation’s “Best Places to Work for Financial Advisers” for the third year, the St. Louis Post-Dispatch ranked Moneta among its “Top Workplaces” for the eighth-straight year and the St. Louis Business Journal named Moneta as one of its “Best Places to Work” for a seventh-straight year.

© 2022 Moneta Group Investment Advisors, LLC. All rights reserved. Moneta Group Investment  Advisors, LLC is an SEC registered investment advisor and wholly owned subsidiary of Moneta Group, LLC. Registration as an investment advisor does not imply a certain level of skill or training. Moneta is a service mark owned by Moneta Group, LLC.  These articles do not individually or collectively constitute an offer to sell or buy securities, nor does any statement contained herein represent any specific recommendation. Rankings and/or recognition by unaffiliated rating services and/or publications are not indicative of performance and should not be construed as a guarantee of future investment success, nor should they be construed as a current or past endorsement of Company by any of its clients.

The post RACEN Wealth Management Merges Into $32.8B RIA Moneta appeared first on Moneta Group.

source https://monetagroup.com/blog/racen-wealth-management-merges-into-32-8b-ria-moneta/

Ask the CFP: How Do I Avoid Probate with Real Estate?

 

Hello everyone and welcome to this month’s Ask the CFP segment. This month’s question is, “how do I avoid probate with real estate?” If you’re familiar with probate court, you may know it can take months if not a year or more for assets, such as real estate, to come out of probate and make it into the hands of beneficiaries after someone passes away. In addition to months and months of time, probate court can also be expensive. Between legal fees, appraisal fees and court costs, probate may cost beneficiaries 2% to 5% of their inheritance. In addition to fees, probate court can also be public. Because it’s a public court system, some information about the estate can become part of public record. If you would like to avoid the time, cost and privacy issues associated with probate court, especially with real estate, here are a few options.

First, real estate can be own by a trust, such as a revocable living trust. If done properly, real estate can avoid probate court because trusts are generally handled privately among the parties of the trust. The trustee of the trust could sell real estate, for example, and give the proceeds of the sale to the beneficiaries of the trust. It’s quite common for real estate to be owned by a trust for the purpose of probate avoidance, especially for real estate located in various states. When someone passes away with a home in one state and vacation property in another, each state’s probate court may be involved if proper planning isn’t done in advance.

Second, when real estate is titled in the name of more than one person with rights of survivorship, such as a spouse or an adult child, the property will generally avoid probate court if one party passes away. Title passes to the remaining survivors on the property. Keep in mind, if you have an aging parent and add your name on the title to avoid probate, this could cause unintentional issues. For example, you could be subjecting your parent’s real estate to your personal creditors. Adding yourself as an owner could also be seen as a taxable gift by the IRS. Also, if you have siblings that were supposed to receive a portion of the property after your parents pass, this property may go to you and you alone at their death. Rights of survivorship may avoid probate but isn’t always the right answer.

Lastly, many states allow for the use of a special deed called a beneficiary deed or transfer on death deed. Some states call this deed by a different name and some states don’t allow it at all. When allowed, the beneficiary deed acts as a beneficiary designation tied to the deed of the property. After the owners pass away, the property can avoid probate and transfer to the beneficiaries, which could be heirs or even a trust.

Overall, if you want to avoid probate court with your assets, you’ll want to pay special attention to your real estate. It’s much more complicated to deal with in probate court than a bank account or life insurance. If you have a question about this topic or have a question for next month’s video, please send it to Mpeek@MonetaGroup.com. Thanks for watching and we’ll see you next month.

The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. Please speak with a qualified tax or legal professional before making any changes to your personal situation.

©2022, Moneta Group Investment Advisors, LLC. Trademarks and copyrights of materials referenced herein are the property of their respective owners. These materials have been prepared for informational purposes only based on materials deemed reliable, but the accuracy of which has not been verified. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. You cannot invest directly in an index. These materials do not constitute an offer or recommendation to buy or sell securities, and do not take into consideration your circumstances, financial or otherwise. You should consult with an appropriately credentialed investment professional before making any investment decision.

The post Ask the CFP: How Do I Avoid Probate with Real Estate? appeared first on Moneta Group.

source https://monetagroup.com/blog/ask-the-cfp-how-do-i-avoid-probate-with-real-estate/

Tackling Life in Stages: Financial Hygiene as Your Career Begins

Kevin Ward, Advisor

Life is full of unknowns—simultaneously a source of tremendous potential joy and anxiety. But with thoughtful planning, you can mitigate some of the unknowns—or at least better position yourself to handle surprises when they arise. In this series, we explore some planning you can undertake, depending on your phase of life. People admittedly do things in their own order—everyone’s on their own journey—so rather than group considerations into age brackets, we’ve grouped it relative to where you are with respect to your (or your significant other’s) career. If you happen to tackle life in a different order, first, good for you. And second, these pieces should offer some ideas for you to explore more on your own or alongside a seasoned financial advisor, so you can still position yourself well to handle whatever the future throws in your direction. Among the considerations we consistently explore are those related to benefits management, insurance, your balance sheet (managing liabilities, or debt, and assets), and saving for major life events or purchases.

With that, we look at some early career considerations in this inaugural piece. Many will be in their mid-to-late-20s, maybe their early 30s during this phase of life. Accordingly, some of the first orders of business involve getting yourself independently established:

• Starting your first post-college job
• Establishing your own household
• Working toward clearing yourself of debt

Suppose you’re embarking on a full-time job that offers benefits. In that case, some of the first decisions you’ll probably have to make will revolve around your benefits, including insurance (short- and long-term disability insurance, as well as, possibly, life insurance, depending on your employer’s benefits package) and maybe some retirement options. If you’re in your 20s, retirement can feel a long way off—and it likely is! But that doesn’t diminish the importance of making sound financial choices now. On the contrary, making savvy decisions early in your career will set you up for a successful and, hopefully, relatively joyful retirement down the road. Please do your due diligence when it comes to your options. What insurance options does your company offer? Health insurance is often standard at most full-time jobs now, but what about life insurance? Disability insurance? Though paying premiums for insurance may not seem worthwhile through young eyes, you never know what life could bring. Paying such premiums while you likely have relatively fewer expenses than you may in the future could make a lot of sense.

Similarly, the importance of contributing to a retirement account—whether a 401(k) or some other vehicle—early and often can hardly be overstated. Compounding is more than your friend—it’s a critical key to financial independence down the road. So, however much you may be tempted to spend your disposable income during your first several years of employment on your dream car, make sure you’re saving as much as you’re allowed in your retirement account—particularly if your employer offers some match of your savings, which could be thought of as the equivalent of a free raise.

Also, dig into the retirement account options and their tax ramifications. For example, does your employer offer a Roth 401(k)? A Roth is a post-tax vehicle, meaning you will pay income tax on any upfront contributions. But from there, those dollars will grow on a tax-deferred basis, and when you withdraw funds down the road (presumably once you reach retirement), you won’t have to pay income tax on qualified withdrawals. A Roth can be a powerful vehicle for compounding savings, particularly earlier in your career when your salary likely hasn’t grown tremendously, and you’re in a lower tax bracket. For those who are further along in their career, it might make more sense to defer paying income taxes until retirement, when your income might be lower again. Though it’s hard to determine which approach is optimal precisely, an educated assessment of when you’re likelier to be in a lower tax bracket can have a meaningful impact on your after-tax savings available for retirement.

Related to decisions about both insurance and retirement are decisions about your beneficiaries. Though you may not have dependents yet, it’s worth ensuring that should anything untimely happen to you, your family—parents, siblings, nieces, nephews, etc.—will receive access to any insurance or retirement savings you acquired. It’s always best to name beneficiaries simultaneously to open any eligible accounts—e.g., retirement, insurance, etc.

Similarly, it’s worth getting an early jump on estate planning. It might not seem important when you’re early in the stages of acquiring assets, but ensuring your assets are designated for your loved ones is important. It’s also worth thinking about who you’d like to handle your affairs, should you become incapacitated and incapable of making important financial or health decisions. Signing powers of attorney—whether related to health care, financial, or both matters—can bring some peace of mind that your affairs will be handled as you’d like. There are various types of powers of attorney—some convey broad powers over your affairs to an attorney-in-fact, while others are narrow. Powers of attorney can be established such that they only take effect under certain circumstances or for a certain period, and they can be designed to survive your incapacity to make your own decisions or not. Don’t get too lost in the weeds here: The main aim is to ensure your parents or other loved ones can access your financial records, accounts, and directions should anything unexpected happen. Importantly, remember that you can (and should) update your powers of attorney if you marry or start a family, so anything you establish early on can be amended.

As you become financially independent, you may also consider moving, particularly if you’re living with roommates or in your childhood home to save money. When thinking about establishing your own household, it’s important to budget for all the new expenses you’ll face—in addition to the obvious ones like rent (or a mortgage, if you’re able to buy), you will need homeowners’ or renters’ insurance, Internet, phone, cable, utilities (depending on which, if any, are paid by the landlord). It’s also worth considering how your other, maybe existing, expenses will be affected—e.g., will you spend more on gas because your commute to work is further? How will your grocery bill change? Are you going from a situation with four roommates to just one or two? Planning will help ensure you don’t feel too financially squeezed amid your increased independence.

Provided you’ve budgeted well; you may begin to experience one of the greatest of new freedoms: disposable income. As we alluded to earlier, the temptation to buy your dream car (or fill in the blank with whatever your dream “luxury” item is) as soon as you can afford it is undoubtedly strong. But in the long run, it would be wiser to make some forward-looking choices. For example, if you have debt from student loans, could you accelerate your payments to retire that debt sooner? Or is there a big-ticket item you know you’d like to purchase soon—a home, or maybe an engagement ring? Are children an imminent part of your future? The sooner you start saving for whatever may lie ahead, the sooner you can direct your disposable income to other things.

Addressing your personal financial hygiene and planning for the future early in your career will better equip you to handle life’s inevitable—and, hopefully, joyful—surprises. And even if they’re not joyful, it’s much better to face unanticipated events without the added anxiety of how they will impact your financial present and future.

In future pieces, we’ll look at other stages of life and career and will share some suggestions for how to continue your early momentum. If you have additional questions, please reach out to our team at breckenridgeteam@monetagroup.com.

© 2022 Moneta Group Investment Advisors, LLC. All rights reserved. The information contained herein is for informational purposes only, is not intended to be comprehensive or exclusive, and is based on materials deemed reliable, but the accuracy of which has not been verified. Examples contained herein are for illustrative purposes only based on generic assumptions. Given the dynamic nature of the subject matter and the environment in which this communication was written, the information and opinions contained herein are subject to change. This is not an offer to sell or buy securities, nor does it represent any specific recommendation. You should consult with an appropriately credentialed professional before making any financial, investment, tax or legal decision. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. All investments are subject to a risk of loss. Diversification and strategic asset allocation do not assure profit or protect against loss in declining markets. These materials do not take into consideration your personal circumstances, financial or otherwise.

The post Tackling Life in Stages: Financial Hygiene as Your Career Begins appeared first on Moneta Group.

source https://monetagroup.com/blog/tackling-life-in-stages-financial-hygiene-as-your-career-begins/

What is Your Portfolio Management Plan?

Want to take the guesswork and the stress of timing the market off your plate? History and statistics tell us that timing equity markets is not generally a successful long-term portfolio strategy. At Moneta, we try to eliminate the guesswork and take a different, more disciplined approach. It’s called rebalancing.

Rebalancing means taking profits when the equity market is up and buying into equities when the market is down. When one asset class significantly outperforms another, your portfolio drifts from its originally stated objective and the portfolio will move differently than it did before.

As stocks appreciate, rebalancing becomes a risk mitigation exercise.  If an investor “sets it and forgets it,” stocks become a higher weighting and the portfolio will likely go down further in a market decline – perhaps more than the investor is comfortable with.

On the other hand, buying in during a down market can increase portfolio returns.  Market declines are often followed by periods of strong returns.  Rebalancing when stocks are lower will mean an investor has more money in stocks during the recovery.

There is no one way to rebalance your portfolio and the timing can vary among investors.  Some investors rebalance based on a calendar date.  Others initiate rebalancing when the markets change significantly or when the portfolio allocation moves off target.

The key is to rebalance in a disciplined way to ensure you buy stocks low and sell high.  With this approach, you don’t necessarily need to know where the market is headed.  You have an all-weather plan.

If you have more financial questions, don’t hesitate to ask your Family CFO.  We do more so you can too.

---

© 2022 Moneta Group Investment Advisors, LLC. All rights reserved. These materials were prepared for informational purposes only based on materials deemed reliable, but the accuracy of which has not been verified; trademarks and copyrights of materials linked herein are the property of their respective owners. Examples contained herein are for illustrative purposes only based on generic assumptions. This is not an offer to sell or buy securities, nor does it represent any specific recommendation.  You should consult with an appropriately credentialed professional before making any financial, investment, tax or legal decision. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. These materials do not take into consideration your personal circumstances, financial or otherwise.

The post What is Your Portfolio Management Plan? appeared first on Moneta Group.

source https://monetagroup.com/blog/what-is-your-portfolio-management-plan/

New article on prod

The post New article on prod appeared first on Moneta Group.

source https://monetagroup.com/blog/new-article-on-prod/

The Case for a Private Equity Allocation

Kevin Ward, Advisor

Private equity’s popularity has soared over the past couple of decades among institutional and qualified-high-net-worth investors—perhaps a response to mutual and exchange-traded funds’ massive rise in the 1980s and 1990s. But popularity alone needn’t dictate a personal allocation to private equity. Though some investors may benefit from some private equity exposure, it’s important to first explore what it is and how to think about it in the context of a personal portfolio strategy. Our companion piece explores the “why” in more depth.

Private equity is among the investment vehicles considered alternative investments, including private credit, real estate, real assets, and others. Private equity’s defining feature is in its name—private—which differentiates it from public market investments in typical vehicles like stocks and bonds. Investors in a private equity fund (referred to as limited partners) provide capital to companies that aren’t publicly traded—whether they’re in the early fundraising phase, are more mature and possibly approaching a public listing, or are distressed and seeking to restructure.

Investors can make private equity investments directly (i.e., in a single, private company); via a primary investment fund, in which investors pool capital in a vehicle directed by a professional investment manager, referred to as the general partner; or via a fund of funds, in which investors similarly pool capital but invest it across multiple managers with differing strategies. However facilitated—whether directly or via a fund of funds—most private equity investments are highly illiquid with specific capital lock-up periods. And for a good reason: Private equity funds generally aim to invest in long-term initiatives and operations at companies the private equity manager believes will generate attractive growth. Critical to this investing approach is allowing sufficient time for investments to bear the anticipated fruit.

Private equity funds generally operate in three phases: capital commitment, investment, and distribution. During the capital commitment phase, investors agree to provide a set amount of capital for a set period, typically three to five years. The general partners will issue capital calls as they identify companies they’d like to invest in. As the fund exits investments, it will typically distribute capital to the limited partners according to the distribution waterfall. The general partners are often compensated via a management fee (typically around 2% annually of the fund’s committed capital) and a performance fee, also referred to as carried interest (often 20% of investment gains, assuming performance reaches a specified hurdle rate which could be either a set percentage return or defined by a benchmark).

Given private equity investments’ long-term nature, the private equity fund manager’s expertise and track record directly contribute to the fund’s likelihood of long-term success. Private fund managers don’t invest and then sit back to watch the company progress—or not. On the contrary, private fund managers are typically directly involved in portfolio companies in multiple ways—e.g., ensuring they’re operating efficiently, helping them navigate complex regulatory environments (depending on their industry), making needed connections to help them advance their initiatives, and others. In this sense, private fund managers become important and trusted business partners to their portfolio companies, playing a meaningful role in shaping their growth prospects. In so doing, the aim is naturally to increase the initial investment’s value.

As we’ve noted, this process can take years to play out—which is why many private funds require years’-long capital lock-ups and are highly illiquid (and non-transferable). These are also among the reasons private equity investments are restricted to institutional and accredited investors or qualified purchasers, who are typically capable of tying up capital for extended periods and who can also sustain the potential losses that can accompany private equity investments (as they can any investment, none of which are entirely risk-free).

So how to think about this asset class in the context of a personal portfolio? First, a private equity allocation can provide an important source of diversification. Relative to the public markets, the private market is enormous: Whereas there are roughly 6,000 publicly traded companies in the US, there are over 220,000 companies with more than $10 million in annual revenue (data from NAICS as of February 2021 and MarketWatch as of October 2020). Another way to think about the opportunity set’s magnitude is by comparing the size of the US economy, which has roughly doubled since 1996, to the number of publicly traded companies, which has fallen over the same period by 46%. And this data just refers to the US—factoring in the rest of the world increases the opportunity set yet again and contributes to its diversification across geographies and sectors.

Broader markets imply greater return dispersion—a bigger pool of potential investments will often offer both higher highs and lower lows—and the potential for returns is relatively uncorrelated to those offered by public markets. Done thoughtfully and effectively, investing in some asset classes that zig while others zag over a sufficiently long time horizon should have the potential to deliver superior long-term results with lower overall volatility. It’s Harry Markowitz’s well-known Modern Portfolio Theory broadened from public markets to include alternative asset classes, like private equity.

However, given the risks—illiquidity, market risk, etc.—private equity may not be a fit for every investor. Hence why investments are restricted to institutional, accredited investors (for whom the primary threshold is income-related) or qualified purchasers (the primary threshold for whom is asset-related) and why the minimum investments tend to be high. Even for those for whom private equity is a good fit and who are qualified, the portfolio percentage allocated to private equity is a major consideration. That said, there are alternative methods of accessing alternative investments, including via vehicles such as interval funds, which are a variation of a closed-end mutual fund that provides periodic (hence “interval”) liquidity to investors by repurchasing shares at the current Net Asset Value.

All told, a private equity allocation can play an important role in an overall portfolio—though it shouldn’t be made without meaningful due diligence and thoughtful consideration of the percentage allocated. Time horizon, investment return goals, market risk, and illiquidity tolerance are considerations before locking up your capital for a significant period. In our companion piece, we will delve into why a private equity allocation may be worthwhile to the right investors and the determinative role a financial advisor can play in helping at least investigate, if not mitigate, some of the opacity often associated with private equity investments.

If you have additional questions, please reach out to our team at breckenridgeteam@monetagroup.com.

© 2022 Moneta Group Investment Advisors, LLC. All rights reserved. The information contained herein is for informational purposes only, is not intended to be comprehensive or exclusive, and is based on materials deemed reliable, but the accuracy of which has not been verified. Examples contained herein are for illustrative purposes only based on generic assumptions. Given the dynamic nature of the subject matter and the environment in which this communication was written, the information and opinions contained herein are subject to change. This is not an offer to sell or buy securities, nor does it represent any specific recommendation. You should consult with an appropriately credentialed professional before making any financial, investment, tax or legal decision. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. All investments are subject to a risk of loss. Diversification and strategic asset allocation do not assure profit or protect against loss in declining markets. These materials do not take into consideration your personal circumstances, financial or otherwise.

The post The Case for a Private Equity Allocation appeared first on Moneta Group.

source https://monetagroup.com/blog/the-case-for-a-private-equity-allocation/

New Article for test 4

testing for MON-2336

The post New Article for test 4 appeared first on Moneta Group.

source https://monetagroup.com/blog/new-article-for-test-4/

New Article for Stage MON-2366

Testing for the article on the Stage

The post New Article for Stage MON-2366 appeared first on Moneta Group.

source https://monetagroup.com/blog/new-article-for-stage-mon-2366/

Article first – test 2

By Ryan Martin & Lauren Hunt, Senior Advisors

What is the right percentage of stocks, bonds and other investments I should have in my investment portfolio?

This is one of the most important questions each investor has – one we often hear, especially from people worried about any short-term drop in their portfolio’s value during periods of market volatility. Each person has different needs and objectives, so our answers will vary.  Yet the fundamental goal is generally the same — to build a diversified portfolio that can grow steadily with a reasonable amount of risk to generate and sustain wealth to meet your financial objectives.

To accomplish that goal, many people choose an investment portfolio consisting of some percentage of growth-oriented holdings (stocks and alternative investments) and some percentage of holdings meant to preserve capital (cash and bonds). The stocks will often include large-, mid- and small-cap US companies, as well as international companies, while the bonds may consist of short- to intermediate-term corporate, municipal and government bonds.

Each person’s allocation decision should be based on their individual circumstances, but there are a few basic principles that anyone can apply. Here they are:

CHOOSE AN ALLOCATION FOR GOOD AND BAD TIMES

Deciding on the right allocation of stocks, bonds and other investments — and staying with this mix through thick and thin — means you are less likely to make decisions based on emotions when things go wrong. While a fairly evenly weighted portfolio (½ stocks and ½ bonds) will often provide for meaningful growth over a long period, there will probably be difficult years where your investments lose money. You may begin to question your mix of stocks and bonds during the tough times, but it’s critically important to stay the course in response to a short-term drop in your portfolio’s value.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index dropped 20.6 percent in the first six months of 2022. But the index also rose by a stunning 18.5 percent average annual rate of return during the previous five years, providing people with a significant increase in their wealth. Understand that the market is always moving; even if it’s in the wrong direction now, keep your long-term objectives as the goal.

DETERMINE HOW MUCH GROWTH IS NEEDED TO RETIRE COMFORTABLY

Whether it’s a comfortable retirement income, a vacation home, or an annual European vacation, a financial plan is needed to meet these objectives. That’s where an individual strategy comes into play.

A person who started investing later in life may need to take on more risk to achieve their goals. For example, if they would like to retire with $5 million at age 65, and have only $2 million at age 50, they may need to allocate a higher percentage of money into stocks unless they are able to save substantially more money.

On the other hand, someone with more than enough wealth to meet their objectives may not need such risk and doesn’t want to see their portfolio vacillate up and down.  While they may accept a lower rate of return as a tradeoff for less risk, they can do so based on their resources.  Going one step further, retirees with no concern about outliving their wealth may want to revise the allocation in their portfolio to leave more money for their heirs. For example, at age 80, if their portfolio is 60 percent stocks and 40 percent bonds, they may actually want to change their investment mix to generate higher returns. While this usually means taking on more risk, there may be little downside, as they may be able to live comfortably despite the outcomes. The objective is to generate more growth that can be passed on to their adult children and grandchildren.

CHOOSE THE RIGHT AMOUNT OF RISK TO MAXIMIZE YOUR RETURNS

In theory, you should be compensated for taking more risk with higher potential returns.  But how much risk are you willing to endure?  Because stocks often provide the highest returns over a long period, a person in their 30s or 40s will likely have more of their investments in stocks than the typical portfolio and they can accept a riskier mix of assets.

While some young investors have recently watched their investments drop in value, they shouldn’t be too concerned; they will have two or three decades to recover. They’ve also been presented with an unusual opportunity: buying many stocks at a discount to their value, enabling them to reap the rewards from any new investment in the years to come.

No matter what your age, it’s important to feel at ease with a certain level of volatility. One simple scenario to consider during the decision-making process is how did you react during the last downturn in the market?  Did this cause unrest, or did you pay little attention to the fluctuations and headlines?

OCCASIONALLY CHANGE YOUR ALLOCATION – BUT NOT OFTEN

People approaching retirement who are on track to meet their retirement goals will likely want to make some changes within their portfolio to take on less risk. After building wealth for decades, now is the time to protect assets.

At the same time, however, pre- and early retirees should maintain a portfolio that isn’t too conservative. Their investments should continue to outpace inflation – realizing that the current inflation rate is unusually high.

No matter your situation, plan to have enough money to last a lifetime. Even if you retire at age 65, understand that your money will possibly need to last for the next 25-35 years, depending on your circumstances.

We generally caution making allocation changes at presumably inopportune times – avoid getting more conservative after markets have dropped (selling stocks after a pullback) and getting more aggressive after a bull market run (getting greedy and buying more stocks after a period of good performance).

If you have questions or need to discuss your investment strategy, feel free to contact us at rmartin@monetagroup.com or lhunt@monetagroup.com. We offer a free consultation to discuss how a comprehensive financial plan can enable your business and personal wealth to grow.

© 2022 Moneta Group Investment Advisors, LLC is an SEC registered investment advisor and wholly owned subsidiary of Moneta Group, LLC. Registration as an investment advisor does not imply a certain level of skill or training. The information contained herein is for informational purposes only, is not intended to be comprehensive or exclusive, and is based on materials deemed reliable, but the accuracy of which has not been verified. Index and/or Style returns reflect total return, assuming reinvestment of dividends and interest. The returns do not reflect the effect of taxes and/or fees that an investor would incur. Examples contained herein are for illustrative purposes only based on generic assumptions. Given the dynamic nature of the subject matter and the environment in which this communication was written, the information contained herein is subject to change. This is not an offer to sell or buy securities, nor does it represent any specific recommendation. You should consult with an appropriately credentialed professional before making any financial, investment, tax or legal decision. You cannot invest directly in an index. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. All investments are subject to a risk of loss. Diversification and strategic asset allocation do not assure profit or protect against loss in declining markets. These materials do not take into consideration your personal circumstances, financial or otherwise.

The post Article first – test 2 appeared first on Moneta Group.

source https://monetagroup.com/blog/article-first-test-2/

Article test for – private

Moneta is a $32 billion in Assets Under Management (AUM) firm giving you the resources, security and longevity of a large firm, while also structured to deliver the personalized attention you deserve.

The post Article test for – private appeared first on Moneta Group.

source https://monetagroup.com/blog/article-test-for-private/

Can You Hear Me Now?: Fed Provides Clarity at Jackson Hole

Chris Kamykowski CFA®, CFP® | Head of Investment Strategy & Research

Last week, despite the majestic and tranquil scenery of Jackson Hole, Wyoming, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell hoisted a dose of reality onto the markets and investors. There, he firmly stated the Fed’s unified commitment to reining in current inflation levels with the understanding this responsibility requires follow-through, even if economic conditions slow as a result. If there were any elements of doubt ahead of the meeting or an expectation of a “pivot” by the Fed, they were certainly laid to rest. Markets responded on cue, voicing displeasure – or simply facing reality – as the S&P 500 dropped nearly 6% to clearly end the recent bear market rally.

Why the disconnect?

Over the last 30 years, markets have grown accustomed to the idea – even if misplaced – of the “Fed Put”: that the Fed would step in to provide accommodative monetary policy in times of economic weakness, regardless of the degree of such weakness.

For markets, this spoke to lower rates, which boosted asset prices and allowed ample flexibility for companies’ capital needs. However, this assumption was within a pre-pandemic world where inflation was largely of no concern and persistent accommodative monetary policy which provided ample liquidity. The major concern of the Fed at the time was deflation (falling prices) as globalization, demographics, and technology dampened the threat of rapidly rising prices.

In today’s post-pandemic context, however, an immense surge in demand, troubled supply chains, and a war in Ukraine all mean the market requires a rewiring of its previous expectations to account for the Fed’s determination to fight inflation even if there is economic pain along the way.

Why is the Fed being so forceful?

The 1970s loom large over the current Fed, whose members are undoubtedly very familiar with the failure of the Fed to address inflation deliberately and thoroughly – something former Fed Chairman Paul Volcker ultimately did at the end of that decade. While no two economic cycles are the same, the Fed is keen to not repeat the “start and stop” policies of the 1970s, which saw inflation persistently move to higher highs over the course of the decade, as increasing prices became an economic norm.

Importantly, long-term inflation expectations today remain rather contained at this point, suggesting the market is either confident in the Fed’s efforts to combat current inflation and/or recognizes that the post-pandemic demand/supply mismatch will work itself out.

The Fed has shown that it prefers to act swiftly in this environment, attempting to keep those expectations from moving higher. While economic pain from this tightening in monetary policy may arise, Powell pointed out, “failure to restore price stability would mean greater pain.”¹

Where do we sit today?

Inflation levels moved marginally lower recently, suggesting the economy is adjusting via lower aggregate demand, improved supply chains, lower energy prices, and tighter monetary policy. Money supply as defined by M2² is slowing, as is growth in home prices, with mortgage rates sitting at levels not seen since 2008.  Economic growth is also slowing, as evidenced in slowing momentum in the manufacturing sector. All of this will likely aid in rebalancing the economy and arresting the growth in inflation in the post-pandemic world.

In addition, the inflation-fighting effort by the Fed has been complemented by fiscal policy recently. The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) was signed by President Biden in mid-August, which should at least aid the efforts by the Fed through lower budget deficits. However, the White House announced a plan to cancel portions of student loan debt for eligible borrowers in late August, which could counteract the fiscal policy efforts as noted by three separate independent entities.³

In light of fiscal policy actions, the Fed has even more reason to remain independent-minded and committed to responding to one of its core responsibilities: price stability. After Jackson Hole, their resolve was loud and clear.

Sources:

1 https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20220826a.htm

2 https://www.stlouisfed.org/financial-crisis/data/m2-monetary-aggregate#:~:text=M2%20is%20a%20measure%20of,retail%20money%20market%20mutual%20funds

3 https://www.crfb.org/blogs/cancelling-student-debt-would-undermine-inflation-reduction-act

---

© 2022 Moneta Group Investment Advisors, LLC. All rights reserved. Moneta Group Investment Advisors, LLC is an SEC registered investment advisor and wholly owned subsidiary of Moneta Group, LLC. Registration as an investment advisor does not imply a certain level of skill or training. These materials were prepared for informational purposes only based on materials deemed reliable, but the accuracy of which has not been verified. Trademarks and copyrights of materials referenced herein are the property of their respective owners. Index and/or Style returns reflect total return, assuming reinvestment of dividends and interest. The returns do not reflect the effect of taxes and/or fees that an investor would incur. Examples contained herein are for illustrative purposes only based on generic assumptions. Given the dynamic nature of the subject matter and the environment in which this communication was written, the information contained herein is subject to change. This is not an offer to sell or buy securities, nor does it represent any specific recommendation. You should consult with an appropriately credentialed professional before making any financial, investment, tax or legal decision. You cannot invest directly in an index. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. All investments are subject to a risk of loss. Diversification and strategic asset allocation do not assure profit or protect against loss in declining markets. These materials do not take into consideration your personal circumstances, financial or otherwise.

The post Can You Hear Me Now?: Fed Provides Clarity at Jackson Hole appeared first on Moneta Group.

source https://monetagroup.com/blog/can-you-hear-me-now-fed-provides-clarity-at-jackson-hole/

What to Expect When You’re Expecting—to Buy a Home

Kevin Ward, Advisor

Real estate markets—particularly metropolitan markets like Chicago—can be challenging to navigate for home buyers (and sellers, for that matter—a topic for another day). Home prices in popular metro markets may only seem to rise compared to rural areas, making purchasing a home a daunting prospect. But in fact, all real estate markets tend to cycle over time—the key is being prepared to strike when the iron is hot, which requires a general understanding of the home-buying process and your personal financial position. So what does it take to buy a home in a metro market like Chicago? How do you know whether you’re ready to undertake the process?

Before firing up your Zillow search, the first question to answer is how much of a house you can reasonably afford. If you have one, your financial advisor can likely help put home affordability in the broader context of your full financial picture. One rule of thumb is you should spend no more than approximately one-third of your monthly gross income on your house payment, including taxes, insurance, principal, and interest. Your mortgage payment (principal + interest) depends, logically, on the amount you borrow, which is why your down payment amount is important. Your down payment also impacts whether you’ll need to purchase private mortgage insurance (PMI), which may be required for some buyers who put down less than 20% of the purchase price.

Another affordability consideration relates to the distinction between recurring and one-time expenses. In the recurring category are the mortgage, insurance, property tax payments, and ongoing maintenance or repairs. In the one-time category are the down payment, transfer taxes, closing costs, and larger one-time improvements/repairs. We will discuss closing in more detail shortly, but it’s worth noting closing costs can include many items, including recording fees, title transfer fees, the inspection and appraisal costs, prepaid interest, and others—which costs will be borne by the buyer and seller will often be negotiated during the purchase process. (Another area where your financial advisor can help you plan, so these costs fit comfortably in your longer-term financial picture.)

Working early in the process with a mortgage broker can help you determine how much house you can afford and what mortgage structure—fixed vs. variable rate, government-insured, jumbo vs. conventional, etc.—may work best for you. By reviewing your income, assets, credit history, employment history, and other details of your financial situation, a mortgage broker can work to provide a pre-approval letter stating how much you’re likely to be approved to borrow. A pre-approval letter can help bolster the credibility and appeal of any offers you make as it signals to the seller and their broker that you are a serious buyer with a reasonable likelihood of obtaining the necessary financing to close the deal.

It’s also important to identify an experienced, reliable real estate broker or agent early in the process. (Note: The terms “broker,” “agent,” and “realtor” are used interchangeably but differ. For our purposes, these differences aren’t relevant, so for simplicity and clarity, we’ll use broker through the remainder of this piece.) Though we live increasingly in the age of online providers boasting superior technology allegedly capable of getting you in a home quickly and cheaply, it’s worth doing enough research to ensure your broker also has sufficient experience and knowledge of the market in which you’re looking.

With your team assembled, you’re ready to start looking. Your broker will sift current listings to show you properties that line up with your preferences and ideals. But a good broker may also challenge you to broaden your parameters—maybe to look at properties you doubt are a fit, but that will help you better zero in on the right choice—or to walk away when they believe a property isn’t in your best long-term interest. Your broker shouldn’t be out to close a deal as quickly as possible but to help you identify and, ultimately, purchase the right home for the years you foresee living there.

Though quite a bit of art is involved in helping clients find homes, you and your broker can also set some starting parameters to narrow your search universe. For example, what price range are you searching (bearing in mind it’s worth looking at homes just outside both ends of your range to get a sense of the market)? Which neighborhoods are you targeting? What amenities do you hope to find in a home? Related (and critically), do you want to find a home in perfect move-in condition, or are you willing to do some work? On the other end of the spectrum, would you prefer to find a fixer-upper and put all your own personal touches on it?

After touring homes and identifying a property of interest, your broker will help you write an offer. Sometimes, the listing broker sets a specific offer date; other times, they accept offers as they come—your broker can determine how offers are being handled and help you proceed accordingly. If the seller receives multiple offers, they may choose to counter everyone simultaneously, effectively introducing a bidding situation in which you and your broker need to think strategically about how much you want the home and how high you’re willing to go to out-bid the other prospective buyers.

A major consideration when making an offer—particularly in a competitive market where multiple offers are likely—is whether you will include any contingencies. While contingencies can be critical to your ability to buy the home, they may also represent an impediment the seller may be unwilling to accept and could consequently decrease the likelihood your offer will be accepted, particularly in a hot market in which the seller receives multiple offers. For example, your purchase could be contingent upon obtaining financing, the sale of your current home, your ability to close on a specific date, or the home’s passing inspection (more to come).

Once both parties have signed an offer, you enter a period of attorney review during which the signed contract is considered provisional. Once all parties have finalized the contract, the deal enters a period of due diligence, culminating in the exchange of the title for the money and the deal’s closing. In some states, this process is handled by an escrow or title agent; in others, Illinois included, attorneys serve as the third-party facilitating the due diligence period and ensuring the title and money transfer smoothly and without issue.

Among the major activities during the due diligence period is the payment on the buyer’s part of earnest money—typically between 3% and 10% of the purchase price— effectively a signal of seriousness (hence the name, “earnest”). If the deal should fall apart, the buyer may forfeit the earnest money to the seller. Also taking place during this period is the contractor’s inspection, which your broker typically arranges. (Note: You may need a variety of inspections depending on the type of home and its condition, and if you either decide not to purchase the house or don’t reach an agreement with the seller, those will be sunk costs.) The inspector is generally tasked with providing a complete and thorough home inspection, reported via the inspection report. If anything is uncovered in the inspection that was not previously disclosed, the buyer and seller may be able to negotiate (via their brokers) how to proceed. Common remedies may include the seller’s repairing the issue themselves before the title changes hand; or they can credit the buyer back an agreed amount to cover the repair.

If the buyer is borrowing via a mortgage to purchase the house, this is generally the time at which the property will be appraised by a professional appraiser, often selected by the lending institution, to provide an estimate of the property’s value. It is often important the home appraises for at least the agreed purchase price—if it appraises for less, the bank may not be willing to lend as much to the buyer, which can jeopardize the deal if the buyer doesn’t have the extra cash to close.

Once the appraisal is complete, the title transfer process can continue and both buyer and seller will sign all the requisite closing documents as reviewed and approved by their attorneys, and the deal will be recorded.

Typically, after roughly four weeks in the due diligence period, the transaction will officially close. The seller receives their funds, and you receive the title to the property and the keys to your new home.

Though a complicated and highly legalized process, purchasing a home can be a tremendously exciting process—which is worth remembering no matter how stressful the transaction itself may feel at the time. The key is engaging competent professionals—attorneys, mortgage brokers, real estate brokers, and financial advisors—who can help explain every step and ensure you are proceeding in the most sensible fashion. It’s a worthwhile endeavor for those seeking their dream home—particularly as market fluctuations, even in popular metro areas like Chicago, offer timely opportunities to well-informed and ready buyers.

If you have additional questions, please reach out to our team at breckenridgeteam@monetagroup.com.

© 2022 Moneta Group Investment Advisors, LLC. All rights reserved. The information contained herein is for informational purposes only, is not intended to be comprehensive or exclusive, and is based on materials deemed reliable, but the accuracy of which has not been verified. Examples contained herein are for illustrative purposes only based on generic assumptions. Given the dynamic nature of the subject matter and the environment in which this communication was written, the information and opinions contained herein are subject to change. This is not an offer to sell or buy securities, nor does it represent any specific recommendation. You should consult with an appropriately credentialed professional before making any financial, investment, tax or legal decision. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. All investments are subject to a risk of loss. Diversification and strategic asset allocation do not assure profit or protect against loss in declining markets. These materials do not take into consideration your personal circumstances, financial or otherwise.

The post What to Expect When You’re Expecting—to Buy a Home appeared first on Moneta Group.

source https://monetagroup.com/blog/what-to-expect-when-youre-expecting-to-buy-a-home/