Ask the CFP: Are Housing Prices in a Bubble?

 

Hello everyone and welcome to this month’s Ask the CFP segment. This month’s question is, “Are housing prices in a bubble?” The housing market has certainly experienced strong growth since 2020 when various stimulus packages were deployed by Congress. According to the National Association of Realtors, by the summer of 2021, the median price for an existing home increased by 23% in just one year. Home prices then fell a bit in the following months, but remain markedly higher today than just a few years ago. Does economic stimulus and rapidly increasing home prices mean we’re in a housing bubble? Not necessarily.

In the Great Recession of 2008, real estate prices certainly were in a bubble. That period of rapidly rising real estate prices occurred in part due to loose mortgage underwriting practices. The tighter mortgage regulations in place today exist primarily due to the last real estate crash. This, combined with economic factors such as a strong labor market, growth in the equity markets and Millennials seeking to trade up for larger homes has created this COVID-era demand. More Americans have also been buying second homes with remote work becoming commonplace.

While demand has been strong, the idea of more double-digit growth for median home prices for the next five years seems unrealistic. This pace of growth has already started to leave some would-be home buyers with few options, especially first-time homeowners and households with lower incomes. Even with some mortgage programs requiring as little as 3% for an initial down payment, prices have increased so much in some markets that being approved for a mortgage is out of reach for some. If median home prices grow significantly faster than median wages, the effect is fewer buyers and less demand. These households stick with renting instead.

It’s tempting to call this rapid increase in home prices a bubble, especially for those of us that remember 2008. While it’s always possible prices could decrease just as quickly as they increased, what’s more likely is that prices will continue to rise, but not at year-over-year double digits rates as we’ve just experienced. The US may see more households moving further away from cities to buy or build in less expensive markets, especially as supply chains return for the sake of inflated building costs.

Overall, it’s very unlikely we’re in a real estate bubble. These price levels may be here to stay, but since median home price growth has historically been closer to 3.5%, I wouldn’t count on 20% growth in the years ahead. If you have a question about this topic or have a question for next month’s video, please send it to tfreeman@MonetaGroup.com. Thanks for watching and we’ll see you next month.

The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. Please speak with a qualified tax or legal professional before making any changes to your personal situation.

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Five Money Moves to Make in January

By Moneta Advisor Lauren Hunt

1. Review your withholdings

If you discover that you withheld too much or too little the previous year and you expect your circumstances to be similar for the current year, you may want to submit a new IRS Form W-4. If your prior year withholdings were too low, the “Other Adjustments” section allows you to tell your employer to withhold additional taxes from each paycheck so that does not happen. The IRS provides a free online tax withholding calculator to help you complete a new Form W-4: irs.gov/individuals/tax-withholding-estimator

2. Adjust your retirement plan savings

In 2022, you can contribute up to $20,500 in a 401(k), 403(b) or other employer-provided retirement plan plus $6,500 in catch-up contributions if you are age 50 or older. Once you have decided how much you would like to contribute to the plan this year, calculate your contribution percentage by taking the contribution amount divided by your annual salary. For example, if you want to contribute $10,000 this year and your salary is $100,000, your contribution percentage would be 10%. Most employer-provided plans allow you to adjust your contribution percentage amount online. Setting your contribution amount at the beginning of the year can help keep you on track throughout the year.

3. Check your credit

The Fair Credit Reporting Act (FCRA) requires each of the nationwide credit reporting companies – Equifax, Experian, and TransUnion – to provide you with a free copy of your credit report, at your request, once every 12 months. It is important to review your credit report to make sure the information is accurate and to help guard against identify theft. To order, visit annualcreditreport.com, call 877-322-8228, or complete the Annual Credit Report Request Form by mail. You may order one, two, or all three reports at the same time, or you may stagger your requests.

4. Automate your savings plan

One of the easiest strategies to save money is to make it automatic. When you automate your savings in January, you are more likely to make saving a consistent priority throughout the year, reducing the temptation to spend those funds without planning ahead. Have you recently received a bonus or pay raise? Make sure you are increasing your savings to adjust for the higher income.

5. Get organized for tax time

You should begin receiving tax documents such as W-2s, 1098s, and 1099s in January, though others may arrive over the next couple months. Whether you use an electronic filing system, folders or paper clips, decide on how you are going to physically group and hold together important paperwork and documents. Gather all receipts for charitable gifts, medical bills, property taxes, and interest payments so that you can remove stress involved with the April 15 tax filing deadline.

© 2022 Moneta Group Investment Advisors, LLC. All rights reserved. These materials were prepared for informational purposes only. You should consult with an appropriately credentialed professional before making any financial, investment, tax or legal decision. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. These materials do not take into consideration your personal circumstances, financial or otherwise.

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WATCH: Moneta CIO Aoifinn Devitt Discusses the recent slump of the US Dollar on Bloomberg TV

Screen shot of Moneta CIO Aoifinn Devitt on Bloomberg TV with host Guy Johnson.

Bloomberg interviewed Moneta CIO Aoifinn Devitt on live TV, asking her whether or not the recent slump of the US dollar has made the asset no longer investable.

The conversation touched on the impact of COVID and Omicron on global economies and currencies.

You can watch the full interview here.

Yahoo! News also picked up the segment and posted it here.

The full transcript from the interview is posted below.

Axil Steel: Has the buck stopped here? joining us now is Aoifinn Devitt, Moneta’s Chief Investment Officer. Aoifinn, has the buck stopped here?

Aoifinn Devitt: I don’t think it is. We have to remember that currency is a zero-sum game. So, what will the dollar fall against? What are the other currencies that there’s positive momentum surrounding and for whom there is less uncertainty around COVID and the emergence from it than for the dollar? I can’t see the currency that is really an obvious trade at this moment. So, I think it may certainly level out. We may see some of that choppiness come off it, but I don’t see it stopping here.

Guy Johnson: So, is this just positioning unwinding? Did we just get a little bit long here, Aoifinn?

Aoifinn Devitt: I think so, clearly, that the dollar was a currency of last resort. We saw that the US was very much the engine of global economic recovery. The equity market has far outstripped any other developed market – any other emerging market. And clearly there is a sense of a desire to rebalance and maybe wishful thinking that some of that underperformance is going to revert to the mean.

Axil Steel: On a broad level, if we wrap in, say, Omicron as well, if we wind up sort of reopening here, as we’re seeing in Europe with Delta – and I mentioned this in the last segment – is that sort of a shift to other currencies? Moving money broadly out of the dollar out of US equities and into other areas.

Aoifinn Devitt: I think if there is a shift, it will very much be at the margin. It will be opportunistic, because there will be a sense that some of these currencies have languished. But look, the British pound, for example, really hasn’t performed very well. The Euro has languished. I personally think that these central banks are likely to be far behind the Fed. And that will actually be a fundamental technical factor driving support for the dollar. I don’t see really a dramatic decline from here.

Guy Johnson: Aoifinn, is there a signal in what is happening, though, around the dollar? Other asset classes seem remarkably comfortable with where the Fed is going. Three hikes this year – everybody seems on board with that as a concept. But is the dollar sending a signal that that is going to be really hard to achieve, or, that maybe actually delivering a soft landing for the US economy – bringing inflation down while not crashing the economy – is going to be tougher than people think.

Aoifinn Devitt: I’m not reading much into that signal at all. I think it’s purely technical. It’s really profit taking at year end, and – as I mentioned – wishful thinking. What is surprising – and you mentioned it before – is just how calmly markets are taking this indicated action by the Fed. Clearly, it’s been well telegraphed. I think we have to remember that no matter what, this is still getting us to very low interest rates historically, even if we do have four rate rises in ’22.

Axil Steel: So, then it really begs the question, have markets rerated enough in terms of the equity market to justify current valuation? So, Goldman Sachs weighed in on that point, saying that only a modest further move in longer term yield is now expected. This means limited further risk to growth, stock valuations from the discount rate. We’ve seen the move, go ahead, growth might look attractive. What do you think?

Aoifinn Devitt: Yeah, I would agree with that. Clearly, growth stocks are where investors want to back right now. There has been a huge desire to sponsor the disruption trade and to buy that and any technical effect of higher rates. I think that has washed through very quickly and people are back on the bandwagon. We just have to look at equity market flows to see where the demand is. And that’s why any of these corrections and markets have been very short lived.

©2022, Moneta Group Investment Advisors, LLC. These materials have been prepared for informational purposes only based on materials deemed reliable, but the accuracy of which has not been verified. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. You cannot invest directly in an index. These materials do not constitute an offer or recommendation to buy or sell securities, and do not take into consideration your circumstances, financial or otherwise. You should consult with an appropriately credentialed investment professional before making any investment decision.

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Five Moneta Advisors advance to Partner

Moneta’s Board of Managers unanimously approved Tony Aiazzi, Patrick Akins, Michael Hollo, Nic Perez and Danton Troyer to be promoted in the firm as Partners.

“I am proud to congratulate and welcome Tony, Patrick, Michael, Nic and Danton as Moneta’s newest Partners,” Moneta CEO Eric Kittner said. “All five have completed the Partner in Training program and met the rigorous demands of the Program by successfully demonstrating their ability to drive business growth, lead client relationships, cultivate practice management and lead teams.”

Danton brought his individual practice to Moneta in 2018 after more than a decade on his own, and now quickly becomes a Partner. His adding the support of an Enterprise Service Team, as well as the resources of a firm ranked by Barron’s among the nation’s Top 10 independent RIAs for five straight years, made quite the dynamic combination with Danton’s personal expertise and care for his clients. He considers it an honor to be a Partner at a firm with such a strong national reputation. As a Partner, Danton plans to continue serving existing client relationships while also developing generational talent for the future on his team and at Moneta.

Patrick has spent his entire 20-year career in the financial services industry. Having worked in various capacities within the financial services sector and with firms of all sizes, Patrick brings a fresh perspective for how his team at Moneta can deliver ‘Raving Fan’ service. As a Partner, he will remain integral to client relationships as he continues to focus on improving people’s lives by helping them accomplish their long-term goals.

Michael helps his clients achieve their goals by evaluating portfolios through the lens of alternative investments. He primarily works to identify opportunities in the private markets, where his background working directly in private equity allows him to understand both sides of the relationship. He joined Moneta in 2018 and now quickly becomes a Partner after returning to his hometown in St. Louis, where he is involved with the local community via organizations such as the Donald Danforth Plant Science Center, The Muny, The Magic House and his alma maters: MICDS, Princeton and Wharton.

In 2011, Nic joined Gene Diederich, then CEO of Moneta, to help oversee client relationships and lay the groundwork for the new team. Nic has extensive experience collaborating with experts both inside and outside of Moneta on behalf of his clients, finding creative solutions in tax, business, and estate matters that make a meaningful difference in real time and across generations. He enjoys serving as an advocate and trusted advisor for entrepreneurs, business owners, multi-generational and emerging affluent families to simplify complex matters and navigate the ever-changing future.

Moneta is a very special place to Tony, just as it was nearly 10 years ago when he joined the firm. While Moneta has grown in many ways over the years, the objective of providing Raving Fan service to clients hasn’t changed. He’s honored to be named a Partner, humbled to preserve the legacy of current and former Moneta Partners, and motivated to continue working with our exceptional team members in prioritizing the needs of our clients above all else.

The new selection of Partners serves as the most recent example of Moneta’s commitment to growing and developing world-class talent internally through its Partner-in-Training program and career pathing supported by Moneta University.

Recruiting and retaining talent is increasingly difficult in the financial services industry, which features a tight and highly competitive job market at a time when succession planning continues to rise in relevancy for firms with aging advisors. InvestmentNews encouraged other wealth management firms to look at Moneta for inspiration on this front as MonetaU leads the way in its innovative approach to establishing a sustainable business model.

“Our team members are our most important resource, and our continued commitment to growing and developing talent within our firm ensures a sustainable future for us all,” Kittner said.

© 2021 Moneta Group Investment Advisors, LLC. All rights reserved. Moneta Group Investment Advisors, LLC is an SEC registered investment advisor and wholly owned subsidiary of Moneta Group, LLC.  Registration as an investment advisor does not imply a certain level of skill or training. Moneta is a service mark owned by Moneta Group, LLC.

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